Even the climate models are confused by this year’s weather. When the August monthly outlook was released (July 31st; national Climate Prediction Center) it showed significant confidence that August would have below-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation.
Another period of rain passed through the state earlier this week, providing limited rain to the northeast and southern counties.
The brief rain event earlier this week brought some precipitation to the state. However, the drier regions of the north could use more rain soon!
While the remnants of Hurricane Barry brought some much-needed precipitation to the state, the next few weeks look to be on the dry side.
It seems someone left the oven on, again! Temperatures, so far, for July have been several degrees above normal (Figure 1) and with relatively calm winds and little precipitation, the warm temperatures during the day can feel brutal.
When I was very young, I remember my father talking about “knee high by the Fourth of July”.
Some weeks I wonder if I could just re-use the previous week’s weather and climate article! The story seems to be the same: It’s been wet and more rain is expected.
After a welcomed break in the rain for most of the state over the last 7-10 days, that window will close again by this weekend. In fact, the 7-day precipitation forecast (Figure 1) is predicting 2”-4” across Indiana by next Thursday (June 20th). Beyond that date, the climate outlook is showing strong confidence that above-normal precipitation amounts will continue through the following week (June 25th) and into early July. Be prepared for pooling water and potential flash flooding! How unusual has this spring been for Indiana? Believe it or not, this past March-May came in as the 11th wettest spring (15.52”) with respect to the 1895 through 2019 (125 years) time period! The record spring was in 2011 when 19.58” fell across the state (Figure 2). What is interesting to consider is in 2011, after the record-breaking March-June precipitation, the rain all but stopped falling for July through October (Figure[Read More…]
The story of excessive rain and soil moisture continues and the 7-day precipitation forecast suggests this wet pattern will continue (Fig. 1). When looking at the precipitation percent of mean for May 1-30, 2019, the southern half of the state received near normal amounts.
The biggest topic seems to be how wet it is and how much more rain Indiana can expect. So far, May has experienced near-normal precipitation throughout the central part of the state with 0.5”-2” in southern and northern regions (Figure 1).
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