Even the climate models are confused by this year’s weather. When the August monthly outlook was released (July 31st; national Climate Prediction Center) it showed significant confidence that August would have below-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation. However, the shorter-range outlooks (that update daily) the last few days, seem to contradict that prediction. Whether it is the 6-10-day (August 20-24), the 8-14-day (August 22-28) Figure 1 or the 3-4-week experimental outlooks (August 25 – September 7), all are predicting significant confidence for above-normal temperatures and precipitation. Given the recent development of drought conditions across the state, these climate predictions (particularly for precipitation) are strongly desired! Will those climate outlooks verify? The current 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast is indicating very little precipitation over the next seven days. That is slightly below normal for this time of the year in Indiana (Figure 2). It is a roller coaster ride, it seems.
Figure 1. Climate outlook for August 22-28, 2019 that indicates the probability for either above- or below-normal temperature (above) and precipitation (below).
Figure 2. Quantitative precipitation forecast for August 15-22, 2019 (top) compared to the 30-year average of precipitation for Indiana during the same time period (bottom).
