Even the climate models are confused by this year’s weather. When the August monthly outlook was released (July 31st; national Climate Prediction Center) it showed significant confidence that August would have below-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation.
The brutal heat wave has passed, but there are still plenty of warm days ahead. Climate outlooks (over the next few weeks) are suggesting confidence of above-normal precipitation across Indiana.
Some weeks I wonder if I could just re-use the previous week’s weather and climate article! The story seems to be the same: It’s been wet and more rain is expected.
After a welcomed break in the rain for most of the state over the last 7-10 days, that window will close again by this weekend. In fact, the 7-day precipitation forecast (Figure 1) is predicting 2”-4” across Indiana by next Thursday (June 20th). Beyond that date, the climate outlook is showing strong confidence that above-normal precipitation amounts will continue through the following week (June 25th) and into early July. Be prepared for pooling water and potential flash flooding! How unusual has this spring been for Indiana? Believe it or not, this past March-May came in as the 11th wettest spring (15.52”) with respect to the 1895 through 2019 (125 years) time period! The record spring was in 2011 when 19.58” fell across the state (Figure 2). What is interesting to consider is in 2011, after the record-breaking March-June precipitation, the rain all but stopped falling for July through October (Figure[Read More…]
Near term, Sunday looks like the next most likely precipitation event around the state. The active pattern seems to continue, with chances of rain continuing about every 3-4 days. Meanwhile, temperatures begin to trend more summer-like, with 80 degree days coming statewide, and likelihood for above average temperatures in the 6-10 day outlook high (see map, cpc.ncep.noaa.gov). Important to note: high temperatures and excessive moisture favor many different kinds of disease and insect development. Scout any crops that have been planted for disease development or infestation and act accordingly. Contact your local Purdue Extension office for help in identifying problems or economic thresholds for treatment.
Hoosier farmers will have to adapt management practices and the types of crops they plant over the next several decades as they deal with the repercussions of climate change.
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