In spite of the high variability of both temperature and precipitation that is typical for April, Indiana’s month-to-date precipitation is near normal and temperature is only a few degrees above normal. There is a slight indication that temperatures will remain above normal into the middle of next week with increasing confidence that temperatures will finish the month above normal. Precipitation is another story, however, with much more uncertainty. Climate outlooks (based upon larger-scale atmospheric-oceanic data models) are indicating little confidence in precipitation being either above or below normal into next week, but probabilities increase near the end of the month for above normal precipitation. With this being said, however, precipitation forecasts are indicating Indiana will be quite wet over the next week with as much as 2.5” predicted for the southern half of the state (see Figure).
Growing degree-days seem to be on track with climatology indicating slightly above normal accumulations (base 50°F) throughout the state. Based on climatology, alone, there is still a 60%-85% chance of a 32°F and a 10%-30% probability of a 28°F freeze this season. However, weather forecasts for the rest of the month are not currently indicating low temperatures near the freezing level, so the actual chance of a harmful freeze event is looking to be unlikely.
Accumulated precipitation amount predicted for the April 17-24, 2019 period.
