After the brutal heatwave hit us as June transitioned to July, any future above-normal temperatures may seem normal for this time of year. The national Climate Prediction Center is indeed favoring more above-normal temperatures throughout the middle of July, so hopefully you have started acclimating to Indiana summers! The key is to hope humidity stays relatively low so that those warmer temperatures stay tolerable. There is a slight risk for another extreme heat event to impact Indiana around July 16-20 but for now the higher risks stay to our west.
In the meantime, more precipitation is on its way for this coming weekend (Figure 1). The greatest amounts (> 2”) are favored for the southern half of Indiana, but even northern counties should see at least 0.25” up to 1.25” by the end of the weekend. Since these rain events have been coming along every few days, drought still has not returned to our state. Unfortunately, the location that may need it most to stay drought free is northeastern Indiana – where not a lot of rain is expected. Over the past 30 day, northeastern and eastern Indiana has only seen around 75% of what it normally would have during that same period historically (Figure 2). To be one of the factors supporting downgrading this region to Abnormally Dry (i.e., category D0 of the U.S. Drought Monitor), precipitation deficits should be below the 30th percentile of normal for multiple time periods (e.g., past 30, 60, 90 days).
Modified growing degree-day accumulations and departures since April 15 are slightly greater than normal (Figure 3) where most locations are 3-4 days ahead of where accumulations were on average between 1991-2020 (Figure 4). Southern Indiana is a bit further ahead than that (e.g., 5-6 days). As temperatures continue to stay warmer than normal, accumulations are unlikely to slow down, especially if daily high temperatures stay in the mid 80s.
Figure 1. Forecasted 7-day precipitation totals for July 9-16, 2026
Figure 2. Accumulated precipitation presented as the percent of what normally fell during the period June 9 to July 8 for the years 1991-2020.
Figure 3. Accumulated modified (50°F/86°F) growing degrees days from April 15 through July 7, 2026.
Figure 4. Accumulated modified (50°F/86°F) growing degrees days from April 15 through July 7, 2026 presented as the departure from the 1991-2020 average.
