Will The Flooding Continue?

Two weekends ago, Indiana was facing freezing temperatures that broke numerous records across the state.  This past weekend into early this week, the story has been lot of rain.  As of the morning of Wednesday, May 20th, the northwest counties have received over 4 inches with a northwest to southeast gradient of decreasing amounts down to around an inch along the Ohio boarder (Figure 1).    Will these rains continue?  The current forecasts and outlooks are predicting much less rain across the state over the next seven days and only weak probabilities of above-normal precipitation into early June (Figure 2).

 

Figure 1. Total precipitation amounts for the 7-day period representing May 14-20, 2020.

Figure 1. Total precipitation amounts for the 7-day period representing May 14-20, 2020.

 

Figure 2. The National Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14-day outlook for temperature (left) and precipitation (right) representing May 28 – June 3, 2020. Intensity of the shading indicates the probabilistic confidence of above/below normal conditions occurring.

Figure 2. The National Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14-day outlook for temperature (left) and precipitation (right) representing May 28 – June 3, 2020. Intensity of the shading indicates the probabilistic confidence of above/below normal conditions occurring.

Regarding temperatures, the forecasts suggest normal to above-normal temperatures over the next week with only moderate confidence of above normal temperatures continuing into early June (Figure 2).  This should hopefully help growing degree-day (GDD) accumulations catch up to normal (Figures 3 and 4).  To track how GDDs have been accumulating since April 1, April 15, and May 1, check out the Indiana State Climate Office website for these daily updated maps (https://ag.purdue.edu/indiana-state-climate/growing-degree-day-climate-maps/).

 

Figure 3. Modified growing degree-day accumulations for April 1 – May 20, 2020.

Figure 3. Modified growing degree-day accumulations for April 1 – May 20, 2020.

 

Figure 4. Modified growing degree accumulation comparisons for the past 5 year representing the period April 1 through May 20, 2020.

Figure 4. Modified growing degree accumulation comparisons for the past 5 year representing the period April 1 through May 20, 2020.

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